Rating Every PL Transfer 24/25
Analysing each PL team’s window activity and predicting how each player will fare.
At the beginning of the 23/24 Premier League season, I released an experimental series to test whether or not you could use Sofascore’s algorithmic rating system to predict the success of a football transfer. To do this I analysed each and every transfer, assigning a rating based on two metrics: A. Value and B. Potential for success.
This post will be a second attempt at this, following a similar lineage but with what I believe to be a more comprehensive methodology in use. Note: the methods and information I use to make these predictions will not be explicitly revealed here, but I will talk through some of the thought process.
In the interest of time saving and document shortening, I will speak and include images on those transfers that I feel most require additional depth. The amount I comment on a transfer does not impact the amount of thought gone into producing a figure I feel best reflects the move. Each players rating will be introduced alongside their name and followed by a short paragraph.
I will go through the teams alphabetically and split them into two parts, this shall be part one.
Arsenal (4 transfers)
1. Riccardo Calafiori (LB)—£38m: 87 ★★★★1/2
After an excellent season for Bologna which saw him earn a starting spot for Italy in the Euros, Calafiori saw his reputation skyrocket. Such a rise sees him being the man Arteta hopes completes Arsenal’s back four alongside Gabriel, Saliba, and White. Ranking as the 3rd best CB in the Serie A is an impressive feat for a young defender. Calafiori’s talent and physicality make the £38m a smart move, and under Arteta's expertly drilled defensive unit, he should slot seamlessly into the team.
2. Mikel Merino (CM)—£30m: 84 ★★★★
Fresh from a European Championship win, Mikel Merino returns to the Premier League after six years in Spain. Consistently rating highly in La Liga, the £30m fee for Merino, due to his contract situation, seems a steal. While not the flashy big name some may have hoped for, this is a player entering his prime years whose technical ability and maturity make him a smart addition to Arsenal’s midfield. Sometimes you have to take the market opportunities when they are presented.
3. Raheem Sterling (WF)—Loan: 78 ★★★★
Joining his 4th club of the traditional big 6, Sterling has developed a reputation as a bit of a mercenary. Having fallen out of favour at Chelsea, Arsenal swooped in whilst in need of attacking depth. Sterling has been on the decline, we can’t doubt that, this isn’t the same player as 4/5 years ago. However, Arsenal didn’t pay a significant fee and only cover a portion of his wages. Purely as a bench option, Sterling’s experience and the improved structure at Arsenal offer some potential upside.
4. Neto (GK)—Loan: 80 ★★★★
With the outgoing Ramsdale, Arsenal were in need of a 2nd choice goalkeeper to play back-up to David Raya. For this they turned to the experienced Neto on a season-long loan deal. Neto ranked 5th overall last season proving he is still very much a solid PL keeper who will bring experience to a young and hungry side. Considering the economics of the deal and the player quality, it’s another smart transfer.
Aston Villa (6 transfers)
1. Amadou Onana (DM)—£50m: 81 ★★★★
Aston Villa's return to the Champions League after four decades pushed them to invest heavily, with Onana’s £50m fee signaling intent. The 6'5 Belgian is an athletic force in midfield, who eats up grass and wins duels for fun. He ranked as the 8th best DM in the league, not setting the world alight but still solid. While the price tag might be steep, it’s understandable given the scarcity in that position. His physicality should elevate Villa’s midfield, though his ability in a possession-heavy side remains to be seen.
2. Ian Maatsen (LB)—£35m: 78 ★★★★
After an impressive loan spell in Germany, where he reached a surprise Champions League final, Maatsen was on the radar of many top clubs. Dortmund themselves wanted to make the move permanent but were not willing to pay the £35m that Aston Villa instead said yes to. This fills a long standing problem in the LB position. His standout Bundesliga and CL performances show this is a player capable of making the step to the Premier League, making the fee reasonable for his age and profile.
3. Jaden Philogene-Bidace (WF)—£13.5m: 77 ★★★★
A product of Aston Villa’s academy, Philogene took it on himself to experience 1st team football where he excelled on loan at Hull, ranking as the 7th best player in the Championship. After Villa exercised their first-refusal clause over Ipswich, they secured him for £13.5m—representing value compared to other top Championship exports this summer. I believe he has every chance to be an effective PL player, capable of impacting games whether starting or coming off the bench.
4. Samuel Iling-Junior (WF)—£12m: 70 ★★★1/2
It’s hard to know if Iling-Junior was a player Villa may have actually been in for or if it was just a part of the strange Luiz deal that the two teams came up with. Either way this is a talented young player that has produced some good performances in limited game time. I see potential there.
5. Enzo Barrenechea (CM)—£7m: 54 ★★1/2
The 2nd player involved in the Juventus transfer, Barrenechea is a player that seems to be more on the side of a make weight than a player Villa actually targeted. He ranked 36th of the CM’s in Serie A so being excited may be difficult. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he never plays a game.
6. Ross Barkley (CM)—£5m: 82 ★★★★
No one expected Barkley to revive his career quite the way he did for Luton Town last season. Playing from a deeper role, he dictated games with his technical ability and football IQ. After losing Douglas Luiz, Villa needed to replace his profile and Barkley is a smart attempt at doing so.
Bournemouth (4 transfers)
1. Evanilson (ST)—£35m: 81 ★★★★
After losing Dominic Solanke to Spurs, Bournemouth quickly replaced him with Brazilian forward Evanilson from Porto. At 24, he brings title-winning and European experience. Though Evanilson scored only 13 goals, finishing 10th in the golden boot race, his ranking as Liga Portugal’s 3rd best striker highlights his all-around contributions. Like Solanke, he offers more than just goals. If he performs well, Bournemouth could net a significant profit in a few years.
2. Dean Huijsen (CB)—£15m: 70 ★★★1/2
The lack of sample size makes this one difficult. Based on what I could see Huijsen performed reasonably well for a teen in his first professional season. It’s nothing remarkable which makes the £15m feel like slightly risky from a data POV.
3. Julian Araujo (RB)—£8m: 71 ★★★1/2
From Barcelona to Bournemouth. Mexican fullback Araujo spent last season on loan to Las Palmas where he established himself by ranking 7th in the RB position. This was based on a short sample size and his season in MLS gives more cause for concern. However for the age and physical profile the move is reasonable for the Cherries.
4. Alex Paulsen (GK)—£2m: 81 ★★★★
An outstanding performer over in the A-League and the #1 goalkeeper. His level of performance is enough to make a £2m punt have very good odds. He even showed some good performances in the Olympics as the Socceroo’s starter.
5. Kepa Arrizabalaga (GK)—Loan: 82 ★★★★
With Chelsea’s goalkeeping situation, there was no room for Kepa at the club. Bournemouth stepped in to offer him the starting shirt after moving on from Neto. Kepa performed very well for Madrid last season when he was relied upon and is definitely a good goalkeeper at this stage in his career. It’s shrewd business in my eyes.
Brentford (3 transfers)
1. Igor Thiago (ST)—£27m: 67 ★★★1/2
Brentford moved quickly to sign Thiago as preparation for life after Ivan Toney. He had a fine season for Brugge but not to the tune of £27m, ranking only 4th in the league’s strikers. This fee feels high for a project striker, especially given Brentford’s recent form, can they take this kind of risk? He is only 23 however and he fits Brentford's physical profile, but from my view, I’m not sure the output will justify the price tag.
2. Fabio Carvalho (AM)—£21m: 79 ★★★★
After struggling at Liverpool and mixed loan spells, Carvalho now has the chance to revive his career at Brentford. At 21, he showed flashes of brilliance during his short spell Hull showing he still holds the potential many saw when he arrived at Anfield. If Brentford can create the right environment to allow him to flourish, I don’t see why he can’t go on to become a key creative force in the Premier League.
3. Sepp van den Berg (CB)—£20m: 77 ★★★★
Following an excellent loan at Mainz, where he ranked as the 6th best CB in the Bundesliga, Van den Berg had many options to leave Liverpool this summer. Ultimately it became a two-horse race between Brentford and Leverkusen, with the former winning out. His standout performances in a struggling defense suggest he could take it to a new level in Thomas Frank’s structured system, though the £20m fee feels steep after just one strong season.
Brighton (8 transfers)
1. Georginio Rutter (AM)—£40m: 52 ★★1/2
Brighton finally secured Rutter by activating his £40m release clause, much to the disappointment of Leeds fans, where he was a huge part in their promotion hopes. While Rutter had a stellar season, ranking 17th in the Championship, it's fair to question if this justifies Brighton smashing their transfer record. Given the same window saw Summerville, the Championship’s top performer, move for £25m, this deal feels like an overreach.
2. Matt O’Riley (CM)—£26m: 84 ★★★★
After dominating in Scotland with Celtic, O’Riley joins Brighton following a season where he topped the league with 31 goal contributions and ranked as the 2nd best player. Whether this can translate to the Premier League is a huge ask but O’Riley’s ability as goalscorer, provider and everything in between make him a perfect fit for Brighton’s attacking system. He makes for an excellent Gross replacement and the bigger clubs may come to regret overlooking him.
3. Mats Wieffer (DM)—£25m: 88 ★★★★1/2
The anchor of Feyenoord’s midfield under Arne Slot, many expected Wieffer to join Liverpool but instead he finds himself at Brighton, where he’ll be key to Huerzeler’s plans. At 24, Wieffer is one of Europe’s most promising defensive midfielders. He's been exceptional in the Eredivisie for two seasons, especially this year. While the Premier League is a tougher test, all signs point to him being capable of making the leap. For £25m, this could be a bargain in a position where quality is scarce.
4. Ferdi Kadıoğlu (FB)—£24m: 83 ★★★★
A standout for Turkey at the Euros, Ferdi Kadıoğlu seemed destined for a move to a top European league. A marauding and highly technical fullback capable of playing on either side, he fills a key need for Brighton. The Premier League is a big jump but this is a player who ranked amongst the top 5 in his league, impressive for a fullback. Given his fearless confidence and Brighton's expansive system, I see him fitting in seamlessly.
5. Yankuba Minteh (WF)—£33m: 78 ★★★★
Signed last year and immediately loaned to Feyenoord, Minteh turned out to be an exercise in profit for Newcastle having never played a game and sold due to PSR compliance. Brighton's £33m move raises questions, but Minteh’s electric performances, hint at serious potential. At just 19 years old, performing to this level is a huge tell for his future but for now we can expect lots of inconsistency.
6. Brajan Gruda (WF)—£25m: 79 ★★★★
After an impressive breakthrough season at Mainz, where he was often their creative force, Brighton feel they saw enough to spend £25m on the 20-year-old. While some may see the transfer as risky, Gruda’s standout performances at such a young age suggest it’s a gamble worth taking.
7. Ibrahim Osman (WF)—£16m: 59 ★★★
It’s difficult to bet against Brighton when it comes to this kind of player in this kind of market but based off the numbers, Osman doesn’t seem to warrant the quite significant £16m. It doesn’t help he plays in a position where they seem to be already quite stacked.
8. Malick Yalcouye (CM)—£6m: 78 ★★★★
This one looks like a snip. Yalcouye is just 18 and delivered some good performances over in Sweden. A transfer where it seems Brighton are hedging their bets. For just £6m it’s low risk, high reward.
Chelsea (7 transfers)
1. Pedro Neto (WF)—£51m: 72 ★★★1/2
An electric and direct winger capable of hurting your defense on either side of the pitch, Pedro Neto’s move to Chelsea came as a bit of a surprise. The only reservation and I suppose the only one other interested clubs had in Neto is his recent injury record. We can’t doubt his ability however, so let’s ignore the worst of it. £51m is still a quite large fee for a player who has been very inconsistent during his time in the league. With last season’s impressive ratings helped by a small sample size.
2. Joao Felix (SS)—£42m: 55 ★★★
Once a £118m man, not many expected Felix’s career to go like this. The transfer only came about due to pure circumstance after the Omorodion deal fell through. It’s difficult to understand the move considering Felix has had a completely stagnant 2-3 years which included an unsuccessful loan to Chelsea themselves. It’s gonna be on Maresca to breathe some life into him but this might be a move forged out of pure hope and not much else.
3. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (CM)—£30m: 78 ★★★★
Many expected KDH to leave Leicester after their relegation but instead he stayed on and was a central figure to helping them come straight back up. With Maresca moving on to Chelsea, he convinced his new owners to bring the midfielder with him. £30m is a big fee for a player whose best season came in the Championship but we’ve seen top players in the league make the step up many times recently. Toney, Maddison, Grealish. Dewsbury-Hall could easily be next.
4. Jadon Sancho (WF)—*£22m: 79 ★★★★
Sancho was once one of Europe’s brightest talents but he made the mistake of joining Manchester United, and his career started to unravel. After a fall out with the manager he found himself back at Dortmund hoping to find himself again. Sancho is an example of a confidence player—someone who thrives when the pieces around him fit, his form on loan is a testament to that. Chelsea were able to use his declined reputation to pay just £22m, now they just have to provide the right environment.
5. Filip Jorgensen (GK)—£21m: 83 ★★★★
A year ago, Jorgensen was a relative unknown, but football moves fast. He broke through at Villarreal, becoming their #1 goalkeeper and ranking as the 2nd best in La Liga at just 22. The transfer may be confusing given Chelsea’s goalkeeper situation but they continue on their youth-focused drive. I see this move as a similar one to Verbruggen.
6. Renato Veiga (LB)—£14m: 58 ★★★
Ranked outside the top 10 FBs in the Swiss League. Had it been a £5m punt there could be obvious upside but £14m is not a small fee for a player with little evidence of the quality required for this league. He is still young and has a solid physical profile so perhaps that could be enough,
7. Tosin Adarabioyo (CB)—Free: 77 ★★★★
Solid PL defender in a position of need after losing Thiago Silva, for a free transfer this move is covered in value. Freed up funds for bigger issues.
Note: There were a few Chelsea transfers I didn’t feel to include based on PSR implications or a lack of data available to make an actual prediction.
Crystal Palace (7 transfers)
1. Eddie Nketiah (ST)—£27m: 74 ★★★1/2
Hale End graduate Nketiah has spent most of his Arsenal career as a substitute, with starts in the team few and far between. Now, with a move to Crystal Palace, he has the chance to establish himself as a starting PL striker. While his performances have been hard to evaluate due to limited minutes, he’s shown flashes of impact. Regular game time could unlock his potential, and it’ll be interesting to see how he develops.
2. Maxence Lacroix (CB)—£18m: 69 ★★★1/2
With Joachim Andersen departing, CB was a key position for Palace to dip into the market for. They ended up with the French defender. Lacroix ranked 26th amongst CBs in Germany last season, one of the lowest performers. He does however possess the kind of pace and athleticism that could make Palace’s backline more dynamic. Whether that outweighs his lower ratings remains to be seen, I do think they could have gone for better, but Lacroix is the right age profile.
3. Ismaila Sarr (WF)—£15m: 52 ★★1/2
I’ve always felt the idea of Sarr is better than reality. This is someone who never found his feet in the Premier League in the few seasons he had here and hasn’t set the world alight since moving on either. Very surprised that Palace decided to spend £15m. Such poor ratings in the Championship is a damning indictment.
4. Chadi Riad (CB)—£12m: 49 ★★1/2
Ranked as one of La Liga’s lowest defenders, all the way down in 27th. Riad hasn’t shown anything to suggest he can cope with the Premier League. With the importance of the back 3 in Glasner’s system, there can be no room for a weak link and unfortunately at this stage in team I feel like Riad would become one.
5. Daichi Kamada (AM)—Free: 77 ★★★★
Having had a failed move to Lazio, Kamada is reconnecting with Glasner who he had his career best form under. He brings depth and quality to Palace’s attack and as a free transfer does it’s best to help financially.
6. Trevoh Chalobah (CB)—Loan: 82 ★★★★
Despite not being a regular at Chelsea, Chalobah has proven to be a solid Premier League performer. I think with the stability and continuity offered by Palace, he can really kick on and establish himself.
7. Matt Turner (GK)—Loan: 71 ★★★1/2
Nowhere near as bad as people make out. After losing Johnstone, Turner is a solid number 2 who brings PL experience.
Everton (6 transfers)
1. Jake O’Brien (CB)—£16m: 61 ★★★
O’Brien looks like an archetypal Dyche CB—197cm tall and a pure box defender. Previously a product of Crystal Palace, he made the surprise move to Lyon and quickly became a key player in a struggling side. Despite his constant inclusion in the side, O’Brien only ranked 29th as a Ligue 1 CB. At £16m this feels like a transfer made on the back of a physical profile and not on-pitch performance. I fear he may struggle.
2. Iliman Ndiaye (SS)—£15m: 64 ★★★
After leading Sheffield United’s promotion push back to the Prem, Ndiaye opted for a move to Marseille, but the switch didn’t go as planned. It was Everton who made the decision to bring him back to have a crack at the league but I have reservations over whether he will hit the ground running. After such a lacklustre stint in France, it’s difficult to see him picking up form in a more challenging league. His performances in the Championship are the only thing Everton can hold their hat onto.
3. Tim Iroegbunam (DM)—£9m: 46 ★★1/2
Although this transfer has PSR written all over it, Iroegbunam is a similar profile to Onana to which he might play more than we realise but his performances in Championship do not make the suggestion that he’s cut for this level.
4. Jesper Lindstrom (WF)—Loan: 58 ★★★
Lindstrom simply hasn’t performed at all since leaving Denmark, this move reeks of desperation to me and I struggle to see how a player who couldn’t find his feet in Germany or Italy will do so in England instead.
5. Orel Mangala (CM)—Loan: 55 ★★★
Considering this is essentially the replacement for Onana, I can’t fathom how Everton thought this was acceptable. Mangala did not make the top 50 central midfielders in the Premier League last season. The fact it’s only a loan takes the sting off the move.
6. Armando Broja (ST)—Loan: 67 ★★★1/2
I’m just not sure if Broja is PL quality. I think Ipswich dodged a bullet with the insane £30m obligation deal that was spoken of. He may notch a few goals in Calvert Lewin’s absence and a loan does soften the blow but it’s not the kind of guarantee Everton fans would have been hoping for.
Fulham (6 transfers)
1. Emile Smith Rowe (AM)—£30m: 71 ★★★1/2
Once hailed as Arsenal’s golden boy, things didn't turn out like they were meant to for ESR and after two seasons on the periphery, both parties decided it was time for a change. The beneficiaries of this decision were to be a fellow London club in Fulham. Smith Rowe never had a consistent run of games to find his feet again but you’d expect more impact when he did play. His breakout season also hinted at potential cracks without the gloss of “young talent.” For £30m, this feels like a gamble that could go either way.
2. Joachim Andersen (CB)—£25m: 81 ★★★★
A homecoming of sorts. Andersen excelled during a loan spell at Fulham in 2020/21, but relegation meant he didn’t come back on a permanent and he enjoyed 3 great years at Crystal Palace instead. Now 28, he returns as an experienced Premier League defender. This is a player entering his prime years and that should strengthen Fulham's defense, filling a key need. This looks like a smart signing, offering maturity and reliability in a position they needed to improve.
3. Sander Berge (DM)—£20m: 63 ★★★
After a decent season at Burnley, Berge moves to Fulham to replace Joao Palhinha. While consistent, Berge ranked only 16th among Premier League defensive midfielders, making the £20m price tag seem steep. Filling Palhinha’s shoes will be a challenge, and I feel Fulham could have made a better attempt at plugging the huge hole that has been left.
4. Ryan Sessegnon (WB)—Free: 58 ★★★
At 18, Sessegnon seemed destined for stardom, becoming the youngest ever Championship Player of the Season. His £25m move to Spurs, however, didn’t pan out as expected, and he returns to Fulham on a free transfer. While he hasn’t developed at all since his teenage years, the lack of a fee makes the move a low-risk gamble. Even if he doesn’t rediscover his form, they can still recoup a transfer fee in the future.
5. Jorge Cuenca (CB)—£6m: 71 ★★★1/2
After losing Tosin and Tim Ream, Fulham left themselves light at the back meaning defensive reinforcements were necessary. With Andersen the first choice, Cuenca will be coming in mostly for depth. He didn’t perform particularly well in LaLiga and will likely struggle but for the price paid, the expectations can’t be too great.
6. Reiss Nelson (WF)—Loan: 73 ★★★1/2
Aside from that 97th minute winner vs Bournemouth, Nelson hasn’t had much impact in his Arsenal career. This is mainly down to him simply not playing enough football. With the incoming loan of Sterling, Arsenal were okay to grant his wishes of finding somewhere where he is more likely to actually play. There’s a good player in there.
Ipswich (12 transfers)
1. Omari Hutchinson (WF)—£20m: 69 ★★★1/2
After a successful loan, Ipswich obliterated their transfer record to keep Hutchinson at the club indefinitely. Surprisingly he didn’t rank very well in the Championship, and seemed to be an inconsistent player who was exceptional on his day. Can Ipswich bank on this? The Premier League is one which requires consistency and I’m not sure if that’s in his game just yet. Had he made the appearance quota Hutchinson would have ranked 20th as an Attacking Midfielder.
2. Jacob Greaves (CB)—£18m: 83 ★★★★
A standout defender for Hull City, Greaves capped his time by making the Championship Team of the Season and earning a reputation as one of the league’s best. Ipswich spent £18m on him despite his lack of Premier League experience, but history shows top Championship CBs can transition smoothly—Dunk, Pinnock, Van Hecke. Having ranked as the leagues #1 centre-half at just 23, I see Greaves as the next graduate.
3. Jack Clarke (LW)—£15m: 86 ★★★★1/2
Clarke is my favourite category of player. The highly-touted talent who faltered after an early big move, before finding a new environment to find their promise again. It was Sunderland who provided this platform for him and he took it, developing into quite easily one of the Championship’s best players. After ranking 2nd in the league last season, Ipswich bet £15m that he’s ready for the Premier League. Whether this is the right environment for him to thrive in is another question but there can be no doubts about his ability.
4. Liam Delap (ST)—£15m: 45 ★★1/2
After setting the record for goals in PL2 and being touted as the next big English striker, Delap has since struggled to transition to professional football, with disappointing loan spells at Stoke and a slightly better stint at Hull. Now, Ipswich have paid £15m to secure his services. 9 goals and mediocre performances in the Championship suggest to me he isn’t ready for the Premier League. Ipswich need a proven scorer, and I’m unsure Delap will be this for them. He may very well become one but it feels premature for both player and club at this stage.
5. Sammie Szmodics (SS)—£9m: 66 ★★★1/2
A late bloomer in his career, Szmodics became the Championship’s top scorer with 27 goals. Ipswich will be hoping he can bring the same prolific form to the game’s highest level. It’s difficult to assess if the year he had was a one-off or if Szmodics has just figured it all out. £9m may be a bit on the high side considering age and the lack of top-flight experience but he will definitely add goals to the side.
6. Dara O’Shea (CB)—£12m: 75 ★★★1/2
A top level Championship CB who has suffered in the Premier League due to the disorganisation of the team he’s been playing for but still done respectably well. I think himself and Greaves can become a strong pair.
7. Arijanet Muric (GK)—£8m: 78 ★★★★
Had a sensational end to the season after replacing Trafford but wasn't the best of keeper’s over a full season in the Championship. That spell however was too good to ignore and Muric may be better suited when he has a lot of saves to make. I’m sure Ipswich will be a recipient of this.
8. Chiedozie Ogbene (WF)—£8m: 67 ★★★1/2
Was one of the few bright sparks for Luton last campaign. Brings much needed pace on both sides of the pitch. A possible starter but either way brings depth and quality.
9. Conor Townsend (LB)—500k: 76 ★★★★
A reliable and always available fullback who provides much needed depth for Davis and also provides something a bit different if they want to go more defensive.
10. Ben Johnson (RB)—Free: 60 ★★★
Looks like Johnson will be the starting RB which is why I am a bit more down on the transfer. It was a problem position for Ipswich and they could have took the chance to bring someone with a bit more quality. A free transfer doesn't hurt, however.
11. Jens Cajuste (CM)—Loan: 50 ★★1/2
Hasn’t performed particularly well in his entire career to be frank. A loan won’t break the bank but this was an important position for Ipswich to address and they choose not to bring in the right quality.
12. Kalvin Phillips (DM)—Loan: 57 ★★★
I struggle with this one because Phillips was once a top DM and many thought he would have kicked on with the West Ham loan. Instead of doing so he had a complete disaster. Ipswich are betting on being able to change his fortunes which could be a big ask. I’m less of a believer.