As the world evolves, so do we. Change is in our nature, ensuring our survival over thousands of years. It does and can happen everywhere we look. The world of football has seen its fair share of evolution in recent years, not just on the pitch but off it too. To explore this, I want to look at two types of people who represent the old and the new. To help me do so, I want to revisit the 2002 classic Catch Me If You Can.
The story follows Frank Abagnale, a New York teen who decides to ditch the rulebook and live life on his own terms. We play witness to Frank flying around the country, running scams and cashing checks. As a result, we are introduced to the film’s other lead character, a veteran police officer by the name of Carl Hanratty. It becomes his mission to catch Frank and bring him to justice. What follows is a relentless game of cat and mouse across the United States.
There happens to be a similar event playing out in the world of football. For years, traditional scouts held the key in terms of recruitment. Relying on intuition and knowledge of the game, they've been the gatekeepers of player judgment. However, in recent years, a new face has appeared in the game: the data analyst. Often younger, they offer a new outlook, thinking about the game in a new way. Instead of scouting with their eye, they analyse data and numbers.
So what we have is a fellow rule breaker, doing things how they see fit and not bothered about how they might shake up the status quo. Up against an experienced head, who even with all the hours put into the game is being forced to try and keep up. That’s what I want to explore. What will follow is not a plea for criminal behaviour but instead a look into why change often requires people to go against how things “should” be done. In other words to take notes from the Franks of this world.
DISCLAIMER: I do not intend to downplay the role of scouting whatsoever, in terms of youth and academies, its purpose is invaluable and will virtually be impossible to replace. My goal is purely resigned to tracking the reasons why data analysts have become so prevalent in the professional game and why they are slowly pushing “traditional” scouts out.
Profiles
We will use the pair from the film as a way to outline the differences that exist between scouts and analysts. You’ll find that for both individuals their characteristics overlap in many aspects and speak to a wider sense of the different schools of thinking. What we want to try and understand is the kind of person both sets of individuals tend to be. The traits they hold, the ways they think. Only then can we assess the lens in which they view football through.
Carl Hanratty — Traditional Scout
Hanratty is old school. He is a no-nonsense federal agent who believes in the constitution and that which upholds it. Following protocol is the only way, doing things by the book no matter the situation. All the aspects which got him to a position of seniority within the bureau have remained the same. Whether it’s gathering evidence, interviewing perpetrators or plotting the next move, what we see are products of instinct and experience.
The traditional scout, like Hanratty, is motivated by a sense of duty and responsibility to uphold the values of the game. Football and scouting has a romantic past, perhaps there’s a feeling of trying to preserve the integrity of the game within the mindset of each scout. Keeping traditions alive, the traditions that have made up the entirety of their career. As you would expect, there’s an overwhelming feeling that the only way players can be judged is through the eye test. As it has always been.
Profile Traits
Traditionalist: Hanratty embodies a traditional mindset, valuing experience, seniority and hierarchy. Skin in the game is what ultimately counts. A traditionalist is someone who wants to keep things as they always were. They perhaps show a reluctance to embrace change, favouring what they believe works. But this is where the first problem arises, with a lack of scope, they struggle to identify when the old ways are no longer sufficient.
In scouting, many stick to tradition. Players have been evaluated the same way since the game’s inception. They are not about to change how they operate now because of a hot new trend. Swings and roundabouts. That might be how most of them think about data. But what if it’s more than that? What if it’s not just a trend, what if this is what evolution looks like? What’s stopping them from considering this? One simple reason, the fact it makes them less important in the game. Can you really blame them then, for seeing data as the Terminator.
Stubborn: Throughout the film, Hanratty is completely focused on catching Frank, even at the expense of his personal life and work duties. Despite facing ridicule from colleagues and frustration from his superiors, he insists on getting his man. It becomes a matter of personal pride for him. He lays all his cards down on this one case, but despite getting close, his methods aren’t quite hitting the mark. Does he at all think to come at it from a different angle? One that might produce a quicker result?
This stubborn attitude can be found in football, that the old way is the best way. Why change what is tried and tested? Sticking to traditional methods is more sensible than the risk of becoming a beginner again. They’ve accrued too many points to go back to zero. Otherwise what have they worked for across the entirety of their professional career? It’s a tough pill to swallow. The tidal of wave change will arrive regardless, so either ride it or get viciously swept away.
Experienced: Hanratty is a seasoned veteran with 12 years of experience in his field, working his way up the ladder the whole time. An organisation such as the FBI tends to fit the bill of a place where seniority is based on one key merit; time served. We see this when Carl’s superior tries to encourage him by explaining how his experience is the kind of thing that can make him “section chief one day”—it’s valued hugely in the narrow corridors of the FBI.
Experience plays just as much as a key role when it comes to determining a scout’s worth. They are valued almost entirely based on it, meaning how they are rated across the industry and paid is in direct correlation. How long they’ve been in the game, their track record etc are all strong indicators to the market how good someone is at their job.
Frank Abagnale — Data Analyst
Frank Abagnale, our Data Analyst archetype, grew up in a difficult environment meaning he had to learn to think on his own two feet. He's not one to stick to the rules; his sharp mind and curiosity led him to create his own path. He didn't fear risk; instead, he saw it as opportunity. This is a character driven by one thing, freedom. Who refused to be confined by society's expectations or rules; he saw them as barriers to be overcome, not obeyed.
A data analyst may find themselves in a similar position, they are coming into a world where there is already a long existing and unwritten set of rules in which most have to play by. But they challenge this idea, they see the game in their own light, seeing through it possibilities that may have never previously been imagined. There’s a desire to innovate and bring something new to the table. It’s their aim to push the boundaries of what’s possible in football recruitment.
Profile Traits
Adaptable: Frank isn't afraid to switch things up when they're not working. Early in the film, he tries several ways to cash checks but fails each time. Then, as he leaves a bank, he sees a pilot exiting a taxi. With girls on each arm and adoration flowing in from every direction, frank stands in awe. He senses something, how the uniform was a magnet for respect and status. This plants an idea in Frank's mind: he decides to "become" a pilot, which eventually becomes his gateway to cashing checks.
This shows the importance of being able to pivot, to show a willingness to change what isn’t working. To do something different and new, never mind the risk. Only then can you find out what waits on the other side. Analysts excel at this—it’s their job to pick through the rubbish until they find treasure. Looking under every nook and cranny. Success with this requires a certain amount of adaptability, to be able to become more efficient at gathering insights that matter.
Resourceful: Frank is incredibly resourceful, always finding clever solutions to problems and adapting to changing circumstances. His resourcefulness shows itself in nearly every aspect and scene of the film. He keeps every bottle label, putting them in his wallet for a future ruse. He uses anything at his disposal to forge checks and documents. He learns to mimic professionals by watching TV and taking notes on their behavior. There’s no silver spoon, he knows how to make do.
Analysts are the epitome of resourcefulness. All they need is a laptop and access to datasets. Nothing more, nothing less. They can get by with a significantly small amount of resources. This is quite different from traditional scouting, which demands travel expenses and pure man hours. They have to be in different places at different times and that could be halfway across the world. All the while with no guarantee of anything coming to fruition. Data is a portal to anywhere, anytime.
Innovative: Throughout the film, Frank constantly demonstrates an inclination to think innovatively. With so many people on his tail, it’s imperative that he stays not one but two, three steps ahead of those pursuing him. There’s too much at stake. He shows this by developing his own, more effective ways of forging cheques. Methods that confuse even the most experienced fraud experts in the police department. Such thinking is what allows him to evade capture for so long.
An analyst has to share a similar bias towards innovation because they work within an industry that is constantly evolving with new technology and tools always around the corner. Being able to incorporate anything new into existing processes is what innovation is about. Moulding everything around being the most efficient and effective production line of insights to key decision makers.
Passing of the Torch
After familiarising ourselves with the kind of people that scouts and analysts tend to be, we need to try and understand what it is that is pushing analysts forward whilst scouts are being forced to take a step back. With that, I will list a few key takeaways that support my theory.
Experience is both less valuable and meaningful
I believe the idea that experience is everything is an outdated way of viewing the world. There’s a long held belief that it is a significant indicator into how well an individual can perform a particular task. Whilst valuable, there's much more to it. This in fact, is something technology pushes back against by introducing a level playing field where new players can come to the forefront. In a sense it reinvents the wheel, sometimes nullifying the value of experience entirely.
We have to understand that this concept is devastating. In the past, traditional scouting was a necessity due to there being no other alternative. The data and information available to clubs simply didn't exist, meaning outside word of mouth there was no way of knowing how good a player was. Ofcourse, the world we live in now, couldn't be any different. Information is available whenever we need it.
To be able to work within these new confines, it takes a different set of skills, skills that tend to belong to a younger generation. As a result, experience is less important as the ability to make insights out of data is something available to anyone willing to put the work in to learn. A highly competitive arena is won by those who are able to differentiate themselves from crowd by thinking differently. You can understand why new perspectives are being listened to more than ever.
Analysts produce quicker work, allowing more flexibility
The transfer market is ultra competitive, there are eyes and ears everywhere across the football world. He knows a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy. Rumours spread like wildfire and deals can be struck in a single conversation. Because of this you have to move fast, you have to understand and do your due diligence on a player as quickly as you can whilst ensuring that no corners are cut.
The problem is however, all the groundwork in the world doesn’t guarantee the identified player will come to your club. Agent, family, financial issues, it can all compound against you. As a result, a club needs options, they need to be flexible when it comes to their targets. Plan A, Plan A1, Plan A2, Plan B, Plan C. Proactive will always win over reactive. Unfortunately, a traditional scout doesn’t work in tandem with these requirements. Their job by the nature of it is long winded, it can take some time for them to come to an accurate judgement.
Analysts have a ready toolbox of insights. They can quickly assess a player’s ability and performance with the push of a button. They can get the cogs turning much quicker. The other factors—money, agents, and family—still need to be handled the old-fashioned way. But determining a player’s ability happens almost instantly, there’s Quick and easy, just the way we have grown to love. Whether that's good or bad is another story. In this world of hyper-efficiency, analysts have a clear advantage over the traditional methods.
Resource optimisation is improved
Traditional scouting relied on building networks and infrastructure. Scouts in specific regions, tapped into the local talent pipelines. It was a matter of logistics, gaining access where it otherwise wouldn’t have been possible. It goes without saying this is a costly operation. Personnel, travel, accommodation, it all adds up. On the other hand, analysts can access markets simply by opening their laptops. The network and infrastructure is outsourced to data companies and the analysts have the ability to tap into it.
Sure, subscriptions and access to such databases and websites may cost but when compared to the expenses of a huge scouting operation, the differences become clear. In every industry, organisations try to find ways to cut costs. Why hire hundreds of customer service agents when a friendly AI chatbot can handle the job? Automation changes the game when it comes to resource allocation. It allows money to stop flowing into the pipeline of a necessary evil into a pipeline of opportunity.
When it’s all said and done, a football club is a business. They aim to increase revenue and turnover a profit. Cutting costs and being more efficient is a vital part of this. If analysts can not only give clubs more bang for their buck but also prove to be more effective at the job intended towards them, how can we be surprised at the changing landscape? Sometimes it’s just how the game goes.
Final Cheque
In the world of football, being different and participating in change is not a crime, we have the ability to do so in every moment. We can be like Frank Abagnale without having to worry about becoming a fugitive and being chased across the country. There’s a larger narrative at play here that we’d be wise to remember. This is a story of progress, of leveraging technology to enhance our own human capability. Data is here to stay which means so are its analysts. Traditional scouts will slowly be moved away from the professional game, with evolution having made its move.